MARKET OUTLOOK 27-9-2008

This week bail out plan from bush and Washington mutual fund sold out news had great impact on our as well as worlds markets.market now more dependant on news because market want good tonic here to prevent further damage.now every one feared with the big recession like in 1929, in us market probability.last two three months in between some good news from economy front such as consumer spending,factory purchase order job creation increasement other than housing sector etc ,but now a days they all turns bearish.out of 10 economy news now 9 is bad .so all top executives including president bush now in dip worried about next coming days.all are doing their best.

but q is their try will succeed to prevent great recession in USA.

mark faber said last day,us property and mortgage mkt is far more in dip trouble and this bail out plan money can be effective only in small part of this big problem.

our Indian nuclear deal also not pass till the date.but it will pass easily some formality remain only.

technically we are 4Th wave 's inside b wave. after this b over some up side remain to complete the formation.for the tgt at upper line drawn on chart.

after this 4Th over fifth down wave pending this can go at least 80% of this 4Th wave.most likely it will end above 3800.because of this overlapping in 4Th wave.4Th entered in 2 wave area. and development in us market.

sensex latest chart

market out look for next week

last week unexpected news from Lehman brothers denial from us govt spoiled the game of bulls .now this is clear bearish market for long term view this will continue for long term .all the economics news from us market continue bad.
in between bull market can not rule out ,now onwards there is possibility of intermediate good bull period (bear market rally)but this means not the end of bearish period and start of new bull run.see my post posted in vfm forum also.
i am not highly bearish considering our economy strengths.
technically we are at ABC x ABC at c wave of last ABC.
see the chart is suggesting after this five wave of last c wave over, new up wave will soon start.

market outlook

technical view.......

despite of all bearishness in world market our market able to sustain at higher lvl.compare to other Asian markets we not joined with them.see Dow and ftse able to save their last low made in July.but Nikkei,hengseng and other markets failed to do this.major reason for this is Nikkei joined later to complete it's c wave and other Asians heavily follows Nikkei.that is why they continue down and down..our market at present with the ftse and dow yes our chart follows their formations ,but major difference is we are strongest among these three.means in all world market we are strongest. this shows investor's faith in our market.
technically our market as well as Dow and ftse at sideways kind of market.ABC x ABC formation continue in all this three markets.
the lower range is 4160 4200 in nifty and 13800,14000 in sensex where you can buy easily. upper range is nifty 4550,4650.

fundamental view;....

bear market lower range is 14,15 PE band and upper range is 25 to 30 PE band.
at present we are at lower band of sensex PE at 14,15 near.
sensex this year earnings are 850 easily achievable and this estimate will give positive surprise to fund managers.
sensex next year estimate is 950 to 1000 EPST is giving us discounted target for sensex for lower band near 12500 to 14000 and for upper band 22000 to 25000.for next year march ending tgt.
our GDP growth will remain in the range of 7 to 9%,this is far more better than other emerging markets.except china.
our companies delivering good results and no any negative surprises till the date from corporates front.their estimated profit right on the tgt.
we are at the upper range of the interest cycle and inflation cycle so correction needed in all asset class.particularly in real estate,commodities and equity.

equity;....

corrected well and now fundamentally no need of further correction as its prices are fundamentally vary attractive compare to other world markets fundamental performence, at this lower p-e band no other market able to give good return equal to india..considering future growth of India and corporate performance money flow form world will start any time when their blocked liquid start to ease.at present fund managers main duty is to sustain our market at this lvl without more correction till the new fund flow start.

commodities;.....

commodities bubble finally burst and had started correction for at least six month time period.this will ease the inflation problem for our as well as all other world's emerging markets.this will result in interest rate down.and this will vary positive fornext coming years corporate performance.

real estate....
prices in Indian real estate are far out of reach for common people this is worst
problem for our economy now.in fact this will prove worst problem for next two three year for Indian economy.this will prove major hurdle for next year.land prices need to soft further.