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DISCLAIMER-All the views and contents mentioned in this blog are merely for my personal use,and are not recommendations or tips.i do not accept any liability/loss accuring from the use of any content from this blog.All readers of this blog must rely on their own discreation and neither any analyst nor any publisher shall be responsible for the outcome.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

unfilled gaps and it's impact.



Have you ever wondered what causes gaps in price charts and what they mean? Well, you've come to the right place. Just in case, a gap is an area on a price chart in which there were no trades. Normally this occurs between the close of the market on one day and the next day's open. Lot's of things can cause this, such as an earnings report coming out after the stock market has closed for the day. If the earnings were significantly higher than expected, many investors might place buy orders for the next day. This could result in the price opening higher than the previous day's close. If the trading that day continues to trade above that point, a gap will exist in the price chart. Gaps can offer evidence that something important has happened to the fundamentals or the psychology of the crowd that accompanies this market movement

Gaps appear more frequently on daily charts, where every day is an opportunity to create an opening gap. Gaps on weekly or monthly charts are fairly rare: the gap would have to occur between Friday's close and Monday's open for weekly charts and between the last day of the month's close and the first day of the next month's for the monthly charts.

There is an old saying that the market abhors a vacuum and all gaps will be filled
market never keep the any gap unfilled.this is what the past record says.so you can easily assume that market will try all unfilled gaps of indian market.

our market had left gap in last year april month.nifty at 3750 and sensex at 12650 so most likely our market will try to fill this gap.

dow's turning dates

Saturday, May 3, 2008

gann next turning dates

from this charts next future turning or revarsal dates are.

may-7th. 13th, 19 th ,25,31

june-6,12,18,24

july-1,8,15,22,29,

august-5,12,19,27

gann turning dates

US RECESSION FEAR EASES

Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs said the US markets may have bottomed out on historical evidence. US is not likely to go into prolonged recession, he believes, adding that the exports are doing well. He expects US recovery to be be strong and Q1 GDP to not be negative.
according to him, The stock market in the US has got right actually; if you look at most periods of recession type activity in the US in the past, the stock market normally bottoms out before we see the worst of the data. So long as this is only a mild recession, the stock market is behaving pretty much as it would do historically. In contrast to many people in finance, maybe the US market is selling more than most people think.
A lot of the S&P and the Dow and all US-based multinationals are getting very strong earnings growth despite the US recession, and that’s going to continue.

He IS forecasting a pretty gentle recovery in the US, especially in terms of the domestic demand, but there is a risk that the US recovery could be stronger and I think that’s something that people in the markets have started to think about a bit in the past fortnight.
It's sensible that they do consider that scenario, we are going to get GDP later today, and it might well be. The GDP of the first quarter has not been negative when many people a few weeks ago including ourselves thought it would be so. I think it's simple and people think about the upside risks as well as always going about the downside ones.

earning season over

Most of the people in the market have been skeptical about earnings growth continuing in FY09. The company’s earning direction says that earning growth could well be continuing and that is the confidence I see in the market at this point of time, which is getting reflected into prices.
the confidence is reviving back. So, put together we are seeing the market coming back to a kind of a respectable level from a de-rated performance to a re-rating.
The important aspect is earning and most importantly the confidence of the investors. If this particular quarter shows the performance continuing and auto numbers are just a reflection of it, the numbers in month of April are suggesting that growth is going to continue. So, such kind of upsides in some sectors would probably mean that growth in the market will be continuing and there may be profit booking at some levels.
look at the April numbers and then take a call. According to me, the April number is largely out of two reasons: one is the excise cut and the impact on the prices. Most of the dealers and consumers got wind of the announcement that some companies may be increasing the prices of autos. So, to a greater extent, even the rate of interest is not coming down. Most of the consumers have taken the decision in favour of buyingwe will have to wait and see whether in the month of May and June this kind of growth sustains. If it does sustain, then auto would be a clear buy. But one would look at the valuation first before one would like to get into.
The result season clearly has shown up no surprises. I think it has been in-line with what one has expected. There is some sense of a slowdown; there is some sense that earnings numbers as expected have reflected the slowdown in the economy with interest rates having hardened. Since then, there would be some more slowdown
Telecom was a bit of a positive surprise but I guess it was expected that the telecom will do well. It would be the bright spot in this period. So I would say that there were not any significant surprises as far as we are concerned and our sense is that, that trend of no surprises will continue in the future.