Saturday, April 19, 2008
Astrology and reversal date.
Watch the chart posted below,clearly suggest every fool moon day or new moon day is near the major reversal date.
Five signs the stock market has bottomed
1. Investors Intelligence survey
The investing climate is unsettled, and the broad capitulation that generally heralds the end of a market downturn hasn't happened, said Kathy Bostjancic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch & Co.
2. New highs/new lows
"You can try to call a bottom when there's a lot of pessimism," Arbeter said, "but the market doesn't normally start to right itself until sentiment moves away from bearish extremes -- and that's what we're starting to see."
The credit crisis may have peaked, but the consumer crisis is just beginning, and historically stocks do not post extended rallies when consumer sentiment is so weak.
3. Discretionary consumer spending
Consumer discretionary typically is the first to fall heading into recession," Swanson said, but it also rebounds earlier than other market sectors.
'My general market outlook is that the worst is over. Not that the consumer is doing great, but the bad news is out.'
— Marvin Appel, editor, Systems & Forecasts newsletter
4. TED spread
This is a complex but telling signpost. When banks borrow from each other, the interest charged on short-term loans (three-month London Inter-bank Offered Rate, or Libor) usually isn't much greater than three-month U.S. Treasury bills, which are considered essentially risk-free
The TED spread narrowed to below 1 percentage point recently, but has since widened sharply. For financial-market stability, Merrill's Bostjancic wrote in a recent report, there needs to be a more normalized 0.35-0.40 percentage-point spread.
5. Two-year Treasurys versus fed funds
The two-year Treasury yield at around 2.2% is now on par with fed funds -- vastly improved from a yawning 1.65 percentage-point gap in mid-March.
"This is probably the best indicator in predicting better times ahead," Bostjancic noted.
Still, the needle should point into positive territory to verify a turnaround, she said. The two-year yield needs to be about 0.20 percentage points above fed funds, Bostjancic noted, "before we can say conditions are normal."
The investing climate is unsettled, and the broad capitulation that generally heralds the end of a market downturn hasn't happened, said Kathy Bostjancic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch & Co.
2. New highs/new lows
"You can try to call a bottom when there's a lot of pessimism," Arbeter said, "but the market doesn't normally start to right itself until sentiment moves away from bearish extremes -- and that's what we're starting to see."
The credit crisis may have peaked, but the consumer crisis is just beginning, and historically stocks do not post extended rallies when consumer sentiment is so weak.
3. Discretionary consumer spending
Consumer discretionary typically is the first to fall heading into recession," Swanson said, but it also rebounds earlier than other market sectors.
'My general market outlook is that the worst is over. Not that the consumer is doing great, but the bad news is out.'
— Marvin Appel, editor, Systems & Forecasts newsletter
4. TED spread
This is a complex but telling signpost. When banks borrow from each other, the interest charged on short-term loans (three-month London Inter-bank Offered Rate, or Libor) usually isn't much greater than three-month U.S. Treasury bills, which are considered essentially risk-free
The TED spread narrowed to below 1 percentage point recently, but has since widened sharply. For financial-market stability, Merrill's Bostjancic wrote in a recent report, there needs to be a more normalized 0.35-0.40 percentage-point spread.
5. Two-year Treasurys versus fed funds
The two-year Treasury yield at around 2.2% is now on par with fed funds -- vastly improved from a yawning 1.65 percentage-point gap in mid-March.
"This is probably the best indicator in predicting better times ahead," Bostjancic noted.
Still, the needle should point into positive territory to verify a turnaround, she said. The two-year yield needs to be about 0.20 percentage points above fed funds, Bostjancic noted, "before we can say conditions are normal."
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
past corrections
Q:- WHY THIS CORRECTION IS BIG ?
ans:-because it is 5 year old correction.
don't for get every third correction is big correction.
if first correction of 200 point 12 days ,
second correction of 300 points 10 days than third should of 300 points 12 days,
THUMB rule is take the last two corrections biggest value of points and biggest time period.
this correction had taken biggest % points and time frame of last its kind of two similar
big time wise and valuwise corrections.of 2003,2004.
If this correction is not the fifth wave correction and as some Elliott wave practitioners says it is fourth wave
than also it has to correct for above mentioned TIME PERIOD minimum.
Q:-WHEN WILL THIS CORRECTION PROBABLE END TIME?
ans:-This correction will end most likely at second or third week of may.
applying above mentioned rule this correction of 33 to 35 % and 89 days from the start of 8th January's.
this is minimum requirement.IT CAN BE MORE than this value.
but without this minimum req.this correction should considered unfinished.
IF this correction is fourth wave than it can max at 44% and time period with global mkt.
Q:-WHAT IS THE PROBABLE DATE FOR CONSIDERATION OF END OF THIS CORRECTION?
ANS:-We should keep the date 16 may 2008 in our mind for the probable end of this correction.
it is exactly 89 th day from the start of this correction start date of 8th January's.
AND IT IS FIBONACCI NO.
IF THIS CORRECTION NOT END AROUND THIS DATE BECAUSE OF GLOBAL FACTOR ONLY,
THAN IT WILL LAST FOR MORE 55 DAYS.
55 DAYS MORE AND TOTAL 144 DAYS , BOTH ARE FIBONACCI NO.
Q;-WHY WE INSIST FOR 3636?
Ans:-Because 3636 value follows A=C formula.90%corrections follows this formula.
our A 6357 TO 4545 =1912 POINTS
So C should 1912 down from 5545 (B POINT,) this gives tgt of near 3636.
and present structure of wave suggest 4450 is not the bottom.
IT IS ALSO 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF TOTAL UP MOVE OF LAST FIVE YEAR UP MOVE.
Q:HOW I CAN IDENTIFY THIS IS THE PROBABLE END OF CORRECTION?
My study of last corrections says every last move of corrections or say end of corrections with high down days or down weeks.
this is not happen yet.
so, keep the last 700 to 1000 nifty point quota for last THREE DAYS, ONE WEEK TIME correction days only.
means mkt will remain time pass pause mode after reaching 4600,4450 TO 3600 JOURNEY.
,and it will go down 700 to 1000 point in just 3 to 4 last days of this correction.
if market want to make bottom at 3636.
another important factor to watch is heavy discount in nifty.
study of last corrections says me end of every corrections with heavy discount for nifty future prevailing at that time.
which is also not seen yet.
this probability will end if mkt start up from here and reach at 5360,5400,and pass more time there.
THAN ONLY IT WILL FORM BOTTOM AT 4450.
Q:-WHY MKT IS HIGHLY VOLATILE?
ANS:-As mentioned above mkt want to pass time only because it is vary near the end and we are ahead of global mkts also.
,it has to pass more five week here at this leval to complete 89 days,
we ar at 64 days from the start of this correction.and has to pass more 25 days.
untill completion of 89 days this correction should not considered as completed.
so it will make heavy up down on daily or intraday basis.mkt will paas lots of time here.to consume 25 days.with last quota of
1000 nifty points on hand,for last days heavy down.
than once it can touch 4100,4200
again one up move possible up to 4600,
after this,, final down move will start for 3600.4000
another
important factor to note is start of bottom fishing from institutional side.possible.
institutional slow buying at this level will rtesult in up down in intraday.
Q;-WHEN WILL MARKET CAN TOUCH OR CAN MAKE NEW HIGH?
ANS;-well,it is all depends on global markets.but all past corrections study says market will try to make new high as possible as early.
almost, after all corrections market had made new high between next 1 to 6 months.6 months time is highest time taken.
ELLIOT WAVE ALSO Says market has to make new high as possible early,
other wise it should considered as heavy bear macro economics correction time ahead.
from this point of view market can touch 21200 again before next December.
Q;-WHAT IS THE OTHER CONCLUSION OF THIS STUDY OF PAST CORRECTIONS?
ANS:-1.every year has big correction,no any year is without big convincingly good correction.
2.almost all corrections happen at the first half of the year.
3.almost all years second half is vary bullish phase.
4.end of the every corrections with heavy down days.
5.continue up move without any convincing rest(minor corrective ) phase after every correction over.
6.almost all with world cues.and match with worlds other charts.
ans:-because it is 5 year old correction.
don't for get every third correction is big correction.
if first correction of 200 point 12 days ,
second correction of 300 points 10 days than third should of 300 points 12 days,
THUMB rule is take the last two corrections biggest value of points and biggest time period.
this correction had taken biggest % points and time frame of last its kind of two similar
big time wise and valuwise corrections.of 2003,2004.
If this correction is not the fifth wave correction and as some Elliott wave practitioners says it is fourth wave
than also it has to correct for above mentioned TIME PERIOD minimum.
Q:-WHEN WILL THIS CORRECTION PROBABLE END TIME?
ans:-This correction will end most likely at second or third week of may.
applying above mentioned rule this correction of 33 to 35 % and 89 days from the start of 8th January's.
this is minimum requirement.IT CAN BE MORE than this value.
but without this minimum req.this correction should considered unfinished.
IF this correction is fourth wave than it can max at 44% and time period with global mkt.
Q:-WHAT IS THE PROBABLE DATE FOR CONSIDERATION OF END OF THIS CORRECTION?
ANS:-We should keep the date 16 may 2008 in our mind for the probable end of this correction.
it is exactly 89 th day from the start of this correction start date of 8th January's.
AND IT IS FIBONACCI NO.
IF THIS CORRECTION NOT END AROUND THIS DATE BECAUSE OF GLOBAL FACTOR ONLY,
THAN IT WILL LAST FOR MORE 55 DAYS.
55 DAYS MORE AND TOTAL 144 DAYS , BOTH ARE FIBONACCI NO.
Q;-WHY WE INSIST FOR 3636?
Ans:-Because 3636 value follows A=C formula.90%corrections follows this formula.
our A 6357 TO 4545 =1912 POINTS
So C should 1912 down from 5545 (B POINT,) this gives tgt of near 3636.
and present structure of wave suggest 4450 is not the bottom.
IT IS ALSO 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF TOTAL UP MOVE OF LAST FIVE YEAR UP MOVE.
Q:HOW I CAN IDENTIFY THIS IS THE PROBABLE END OF CORRECTION?
My study of last corrections says every last move of corrections or say end of corrections with high down days or down weeks.
this is not happen yet.
so, keep the last 700 to 1000 nifty point quota for last THREE DAYS, ONE WEEK TIME correction days only.
means mkt will remain time pass pause mode after reaching 4600,4450 TO 3600 JOURNEY.
,and it will go down 700 to 1000 point in just 3 to 4 last days of this correction.
if market want to make bottom at 3636.
another important factor to watch is heavy discount in nifty.
study of last corrections says me end of every corrections with heavy discount for nifty future prevailing at that time.
which is also not seen yet.
this probability will end if mkt start up from here and reach at 5360,5400,and pass more time there.
THAN ONLY IT WILL FORM BOTTOM AT 4450.
Q:-WHY MKT IS HIGHLY VOLATILE?
ANS:-As mentioned above mkt want to pass time only because it is vary near the end and we are ahead of global mkts also.
,it has to pass more five week here at this leval to complete 89 days,
we ar at 64 days from the start of this correction.and has to pass more 25 days.
untill completion of 89 days this correction should not considered as completed.
so it will make heavy up down on daily or intraday basis.mkt will paas lots of time here.to consume 25 days.with last quota of
1000 nifty points on hand,for last days heavy down.
than once it can touch 4100,4200
again one up move possible up to 4600,
after this,, final down move will start for 3600.4000
another
important factor to note is start of bottom fishing from institutional side.possible.
institutional slow buying at this level will rtesult in up down in intraday.
Q;-WHEN WILL MARKET CAN TOUCH OR CAN MAKE NEW HIGH?
ANS;-well,it is all depends on global markets.but all past corrections study says market will try to make new high as possible as early.
almost, after all corrections market had made new high between next 1 to 6 months.6 months time is highest time taken.
ELLIOT WAVE ALSO Says market has to make new high as possible early,
other wise it should considered as heavy bear macro economics correction time ahead.
from this point of view market can touch 21200 again before next December.
Q;-WHAT IS THE OTHER CONCLUSION OF THIS STUDY OF PAST CORRECTIONS?
ANS:-1.every year has big correction,no any year is without big convincingly good correction.
2.almost all corrections happen at the first half of the year.
3.almost all years second half is vary bullish phase.
4.end of the every corrections with heavy down days.
5.continue up move without any convincing rest(minor corrective ) phase after every correction over.
6.almost all with world cues.and match with worlds other charts.
Saturday, April 5, 2008
3600 possible now !
Finally Dow Jones had started to make it's B wave ,all Asian mkts and European mkts joined with Dow,except our mkt .our mkt has heavy supply at every rise .unable to cross 5000 mark.this is bad sign for us. Generally our move is two to three times higher than dow .if dow up 100 than our mkt up 200 to 300 points .This time our mkt up only 500 nifty points from 4468 and DOW UP NEARLY 1000 POINTS FROM IT'S LOW.This is the opportunity for our mkt to form bottom at 4450 ,with Dow if our mkt with global trend up ,for the one week time and touch of 5545 is the first sign of our mkt to stable around 4450.but this was not happen, now from this point of view there is high probability the bottom is not the 4450,so next tgt is 3650 probability vary high .
A WAVE 6357 to 4450 1900 points
B WAVE 4450 to 5545 1100 points 61.8%
now c wave tgt is 61.8% of A= 4450
100% of A=3650 most possible now.
DOW will start it's last C WAVE down wave for
61.8 % of A= 11634
100% of A= 10800
now with this Dow's down ward journey our mkt will probably go below 4450 first and than wil, touch 3650.in line with Dow all world mkts move will similar.
Macro economics:-
US ECONOMY:- us economy in recession finally official announcement from bernanke cause of worry for our mkt too.every days bad news comes from every fronts of economy.now only one thing is good no new bad news from financial big firms. and inflation is high ,clearly suggest liquidity no bigger problem.also govt support for liquidity ease.keep watch on us next result season start from next weak.half of the economists not agree with bernanke that us economy in recession they believe this is the temporary slow down period.,and us economy will start improvement from second half of this year.
INDIAN ECONOMY:-we are now at start of slow down in our economy first signs of it is iip no.. auto sales no. etc . but we are not at start of recession our economy stronger than all world's other major economies.if our companies performance start some pause mode than only our mkt will slow it's pace for it's up ward journey after this correction over.Keep watch on next result season.
COMMODITIES:-----
ALL world's commodity mkt at higher stage large money flow diverted from stock mkt to gold crude and other commo. this is good sign for stockmkts ,there is lots of liquidity available for stock mkts which is engaged with commodities mkts at present. after this correction over and ew tgt reach this money can divert again at stock mkts . so because of problem of liquidity only ,down ward journey will continue no more.
IF US economy continue its bad performance than decoupling happen for Asian mkts ?
IF our economy start to give more and more bad news of slow down what will be the role of fii for long term investment in India?IS property mkt,construction mkt of India start for recession or heavy slow down (due to heavy bubble formed in their prices),which already begun what is it's effect on our stock mkt and economy?
INDIAN LIQUIDITY :-
inflation is higher in India suggest no problem of liquidity.now a days awareness of people increasing .more and more people ready to invest in stock mkt but only problem here is bad sentiment due to global effect.since last three four months mutual funds sitting with large cash .this money will certainly come in any time.Indian HNIS waiting for good sentiment .
A WAVE 6357 to 4450 1900 points
B WAVE 4450 to 5545 1100 points 61.8%
now c wave tgt is 61.8% of A= 4450
100% of A=3650 most possible now.
DOW will start it's last C WAVE down wave for
61.8 % of A= 11634
100% of A= 10800
now with this Dow's down ward journey our mkt will probably go below 4450 first and than wil, touch 3650.in line with Dow all world mkts move will similar.
Macro economics:-
US ECONOMY:- us economy in recession finally official announcement from bernanke cause of worry for our mkt too.every days bad news comes from every fronts of economy.now only one thing is good no new bad news from financial big firms. and inflation is high ,clearly suggest liquidity no bigger problem.also govt support for liquidity ease.keep watch on us next result season start from next weak.half of the economists not agree with bernanke that us economy in recession they believe this is the temporary slow down period.,and us economy will start improvement from second half of this year.
INDIAN ECONOMY:-we are now at start of slow down in our economy first signs of it is iip no.. auto sales no. etc . but we are not at start of recession our economy stronger than all world's other major economies.if our companies performance start some pause mode than only our mkt will slow it's pace for it's up ward journey after this correction over.Keep watch on next result season.
COMMODITIES:-----
ALL world's commodity mkt at higher stage large money flow diverted from stock mkt to gold crude and other commo. this is good sign for stockmkts ,there is lots of liquidity available for stock mkts which is engaged with commodities mkts at present. after this correction over and ew tgt reach this money can divert again at stock mkts . so because of problem of liquidity only ,down ward journey will continue no more.
IF US economy continue its bad performance than decoupling happen for Asian mkts ?
IF our economy start to give more and more bad news of slow down what will be the role of fii for long term investment in India?IS property mkt,construction mkt of India start for recession or heavy slow down (due to heavy bubble formed in their prices),which already begun what is it's effect on our stock mkt and economy?
INDIAN LIQUIDITY :-
inflation is higher in India suggest no problem of liquidity.now a days awareness of people increasing .more and more people ready to invest in stock mkt but only problem here is bad sentiment due to global effect.since last three four months mutual funds sitting with large cash .this money will certainly come in any time.Indian HNIS waiting for good sentiment .
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