Finally Dow Jones had started to make it's B wave ,all Asian mkts and European mkts joined with Dow,except our mkt .our mkt has heavy supply at every rise .unable to cross 5000 mark.this is bad sign for us. Generally our move is two to three times higher than dow .if dow up 100 than our mkt up 200 to 300 points .This time our mkt up only 500 nifty points from 4468 and DOW UP NEARLY 1000 POINTS FROM IT'S LOW.This is the opportunity for our mkt to form bottom at 4450 ,with Dow if our mkt with global trend up ,for the one week time and touch of 5545 is the first sign of our mkt to stable around 4450.but this was not happen, now from this point of view there is high probability the bottom is not the 4450,so next tgt is 3650 probability vary high .
A WAVE 6357 to 4450 1900 points
B WAVE 4450 to 5545 1100 points 61.8%
now c wave tgt is 61.8% of A= 4450
100% of A=3650 most possible now.
DOW will start it's last C WAVE down wave for
61.8 % of A= 11634
100% of A= 10800
now with this Dow's down ward journey our mkt will probably go below 4450 first and than wil, touch 3650.in line with Dow all world mkts move will similar.
Macro economics:-
US ECONOMY:- us economy in recession finally official announcement from bernanke cause of worry for our mkt too.every days bad news comes from every fronts of economy.now only one thing is good no new bad news from financial big firms. and inflation is high ,clearly suggest liquidity no bigger problem.also govt support for liquidity ease.keep watch on us next result season start from next weak.half of the economists not agree with bernanke that us economy in recession they believe this is the temporary slow down period.,and us economy will start improvement from second half of this year.
INDIAN ECONOMY:-we are now at start of slow down in our economy first signs of it is iip no.. auto sales no. etc . but we are not at start of recession our economy stronger than all world's other major economies.if our companies performance start some pause mode than only our mkt will slow it's pace for it's up ward journey after this correction over.Keep watch on next result season.
COMMODITIES:-----
ALL world's commodity mkt at higher stage large money flow diverted from stock mkt to gold crude and other commo. this is good sign for stockmkts ,there is lots of liquidity available for stock mkts which is engaged with commodities mkts at present. after this correction over and ew tgt reach this money can divert again at stock mkts . so because of problem of liquidity only ,down ward journey will continue no more.
IF US economy continue its bad performance than decoupling happen for Asian mkts ?
IF our economy start to give more and more bad news of slow down what will be the role of fii for long term investment in India?IS property mkt,construction mkt of India start for recession or heavy slow down (due to heavy bubble formed in their prices),which already begun what is it's effect on our stock mkt and economy?
INDIAN LIQUIDITY :-
inflation is higher in India suggest no problem of liquidity.now a days awareness of people increasing .more and more people ready to invest in stock mkt but only problem here is bad sentiment due to global effect.since last three four months mutual funds sitting with large cash .this money will certainly come in any time.Indian HNIS waiting for good sentiment .
