afraid to trade.com elliot wave counts. similar to our count....

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Per multiple reader request (thank you to all my followers in India!), I am updating my analysis on Indias Nifty 50 Index, beginning this week with the long-term 10-year Monthly Structure.Lets take a quick look at a possible large-scale Elliott Wave count and also a Fibonacci Confluence (three price levels) chart on the monthly timeframe - a key turning point may be ahead soon.The market rallied sharply off the 2003 lows near 1,000 and peaked in January 2008 at a price high of 6,350 - an absolutely impressive rise to be sure.Look closely and you can see an arc rise (not drawn) off these lows as price went parabolicin its last few months - a classic warning of a top being formed.We see the Elliott Wave count (from 1 to 5) as the market rose 600% in value. We now appear to be in a corrective phase, and perhaps are finishing the (second) wave of a larger corrective move to retrace a larger portion of this price rise.This count would assume that the final Corrective wave down is on the horizon, which could take price back down to test the 2,500 level yet again in the months and perhaps next year to come.We have already retraced 61.8% of the move from the 2003 lows to the 2008 highs, so perhaps the corrective phase has run its course - that would be the alternate scenario.The alternatescenario would assume that instead of the 5-wave decline I have labeled as ,

instead had a complex corrective move down - perhaps in the order of ABC - X - ABC to end the correction, which places us squarely in Wave 1 now of a new bull market and expecting a corrective Wave 2 down (not to the lows - but perhaps to the 3,500 level) to begin.I think it counts better as a correction instead of a new bull market, but we need to be open to this possibility.Either way,

the Next Likely Swing appears to be a down one, whether it be the final Wave C or just a corrective Wave 2 - that is where I find Elliott Wave helpful - not in absolute forecasting, but in confluence counting in regards to the next likely swing.Speaking of confluence, lets take a look at a Confluence Fibonacci Grid using three price lows to begin our retracement to the closing high in January 2008.Two of the 3 grids overlap about the 4,400 level, which you see is exactly where price is located now.In fact, that is the only major overlapping confluence level we see using these grids on the chart.This implies that price is at a critical node and could be unable to overcome this confluence level to the upside - in other words, it could serve as key resistance.Last month also formed a Spinning Top candle, which is often seen and associated with key turning points in a market.As a caveat, there no guarantee of any absolute prediction into the future, but for now, we have the following

:

Possible Wave C (or Wave 2) down about to beginPrice at a critical Fibonacci Confluence Node around 4,400A Spinning Top candle formed in June on the confluence nodeA solid close above 4,800 and especially 5,000 would overrule these bearish omens, but until then, it might pay to be defensive on the long side at these levels

, understanding that the Nifty is at confluence resistance ties into the thesis that the S&P 500 is forming a possible reversal pattern down (Monthly signal and also Daily Head and Shoulders with momentum/volume divergences) - and adds a layer of confirmation that both markets appear poised for corrections)

.Corey Rosenbloom

CMTAfraid to Trade.com

sensex at down trend

• ,,,,,,,,,

• after achieving our sharp tgt of 15600 now sensex at down move.running is b wave of down move.... c down wave remain...will bring down the mkt again at lower lvl..

bse elliot wave tgt

dow and sensex at big consolidation time,with good news support from US econonomy

dow jones and sensex at big consolidation zone, say nine months to one year.

This current rally is only one more bear mkt rally.

out of ten economy news 6 reamin with positive tick..

The measure is based on 10 components,six of which increased in February:

interest rate spread;

index of supplier deliveries;

building permits;

real money supply;

manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials;

and manufacturers' new orders for non defense capital goods.

Some of those six indicators enjoyed surprising upticks in recent economic data.

Housing starts unexpectedly surged 22% February, after falling for eight months. It was the first time housing starts increased since June.

The remaining four components declined:

average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance;

stock prices;

index of consumer expectations,

and average weekly manufacturing hours.

The components in decline aren't surprising after a slew of negative reports. The number of people filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, but continuing claims hit a fresh record high of more than 5.47 million. The unemployment rate is up to 8.1%, the highest level in 25 years.

Stock prices rallied last week, but the Dow Jones industrial average is still down almost 50% from its peak in October 2007.Consumer confidence fell to a three-month low in February.

This good news support from US economics front will provide good support to dow jones to form bottom at 6400 lvl.this 6400 is most likely the final bottom for dow,similarly our mkt will also form bottom around 7200 to 7500 sensex zone But majority time, movement zone will in between 2500 to 3200 in terms of nifty.those who are waiting for 3200 above move will find it any way for next sixth months time atleast.With lots of whipsaws, with common tech tools, this time will prove most challanging time for traders.

see small wave count of dow and sensex.

also see the sensex flat running which is earlier posted in my this blog at 9th feb.now this possibility comes true.follow this count now.

dow at big consolidation zone

..........Dow jones now at big time frame consolidation zone. see the possible wave structure for future prediction,,

all suggests next days for time pass corrections only.

our mkt had started time pass correction earlier than world's other mkts.

i am expecting next one year range bound consolidation in all world mkts.

this will effect in our mkt move also, expecting flat or more big triangle perhaps descending,,,most likely flat correction in between 2550 to 3150 on the way....

one thing is sure we are at 4th wave of C ,,,,, till the date and,, no any sign of start of fifth wave.

ew count for US MKTalso from some big ew analysts of USA,,,

main problem of their count is it's not match with fibonacci no. for more details visit afraid to trade blog for these counts, links avilable in this blog.(see their count posted here)

there are two different type of counts available but both are not match with fibonacci properly.,,,, that is why my count differe from them, which is exactly match with fibonacci and other rules of elliot waves.

TRIANGLE POSSIBILITY ALSO

flat complax correction continue

gann turning dates

nifty stuck in a big tringle.

latest count of bob pretcher

dow at grand supercycle correction.

dow 6450 prediction

see dows first gt prediction of 7200 and 6450 posted at vfm direct forum

link is http://www.vfmdirect.com/forums/show.cgi?topicid=1220390496

past records

see this 2250 prediction prove right this is not posted in this blog....

i am posting many predictions in many forums...

see link http://www.vfmdirect.com/forums/show.cgi?topicid=1220390496 for this 2250 prediction.....

MARKET OUTLOOK 27-9-2008

This week bail out plan from bush and Washington mutual fund sold out news had great impact on our as well as worlds markets.market now more dependant on news because market want good tonic here to prevent further damage.now every one feared with the big recession like in 1929, in us market probability.last two three months in between some good news from economy front such as consumer spending,factory purchase order job creation increasement other than housing sector etc ,but now a days they all turns bearish.out of 10 economy news now 9 is bad .so all top executives including president bush now in dip worried about next coming days.all are doing their best.

but q is their try will succeed to prevent great recession in USA.

mark faber said last day,us property and mortgage mkt is far more in dip trouble and this bail out plan money can be effective only in small part of this big problem.

our Indian nuclear deal also not pass till the date.but it will pass easily some formality remain only.

technically we are 4Th wave 's inside b wave. after this b over some up side remain to complete the formation.for the tgt at upper line drawn on chart.

after this 4Th over fifth down wave pending this can go at least 80% of this 4Th wave.most likely it will end above 3800.because of this overlapping in 4Th wave.4Th entered in 2 wave area. and development in us market.

sensex latest chart

market out look for next week

last week unexpected news from Lehman brothers denial from us govt spoiled the game of bulls .now this is clear bearish market for long term view this will continue for long term .all the economics news from us market continue bad.
in between bull market can not rule out ,now onwards there is possibility of intermediate good bull period (bear market rally)but this means not the end of bearish period and start of new bull run.see my post posted in vfm forum also.
i am not highly bearish considering our economy strengths.
technically we are at ABC x ABC at c wave of last ABC.
see the chart is suggesting after this five wave of last c wave over, new up wave will soon start.

market outlook

technical view.......

despite of all bearishness in world market our market able to sustain at higher lvl.compare to other Asian markets we not joined with them.see Dow and ftse able to save their last low made in July.but Nikkei,hengseng and other markets failed to do this.major reason for this is Nikkei joined later to complete it's c wave and other Asians heavily follows Nikkei.that is why they continue down and down..our market at present with the ftse and dow yes our chart follows their formations ,but major difference is we are strongest among these three.means in all world market we are strongest. this shows investor's faith in our market.
technically our market as well as Dow and ftse at sideways kind of market.ABC x ABC formation continue in all this three markets.
the lower range is 4160 4200 in nifty and 13800,14000 in sensex where you can buy easily. upper range is nifty 4550,4650.

fundamental view;....

bear market lower range is 14,15 PE band and upper range is 25 to 30 PE band.
at present we are at lower band of sensex PE at 14,15 near.
sensex this year earnings are 850 easily achievable and this estimate will give positive surprise to fund managers.
sensex next year estimate is 950 to 1000 EPST is giving us discounted target for sensex for lower band near 12500 to 14000 and for upper band 22000 to 25000.for next year march ending tgt.
our GDP growth will remain in the range of 7 to 9%,this is far more better than other emerging markets.except china.
our companies delivering good results and no any negative surprises till the date from corporates front.their estimated profit right on the tgt.
we are at the upper range of the interest cycle and inflation cycle so correction needed in all asset class.particularly in real estate,commodities and equity.

equity;....

corrected well and now fundamentally no need of further correction as its prices are fundamentally vary attractive compare to other world markets fundamental performence, at this lower p-e band no other market able to give good return equal to india..considering future growth of India and corporate performance money flow form world will start any time when their blocked liquid start to ease.at present fund managers main duty is to sustain our market at this lvl without more correction till the new fund flow start.

commodities;.....

commodities bubble finally burst and had started correction for at least six month time period.this will ease the inflation problem for our as well as all other world's emerging markets.this will result in interest rate down.and this will vary positive fornext coming years corporate performance.

real estate....
prices in Indian real estate are far out of reach for common people this is worst
problem for our economy now.in fact this will prove worst problem for next two three year for Indian economy.this will prove major hurdle for next year.land prices need to soft further.

TIME TO BE OPTIMISTIC

Yes, the financial news gets worse every day. Yes, the average stock is down more
than 25% over the past thirteen months. Yes, the housing market is still reeling and
foreclosure activity is rising. Yes, the price of gas is skyrocketing. And yes, this too
will pass, and the economy and stock market will begin a new expansion and
sustainable bull market, as all business cycles have. Over our several decades of
investment management experience, we have witnessed many business cycle
recessions and stock market declines. They all have one thing in common. In the
midst of the most negative financial news, the stock market (fulfilling its role as an
accurate leading economic indicator) begins to move higher in anticipation of the
next economic recovery. We believe the market has more than discounted all
the bad news out there and is putting the finishing touches on the bottoming
process for stocks. Yes, a significant advance is set to begin that will take stocks
much higher in the year ahead.
Considering all the negative financial headlines, is it any wonder investor psychology
has reached a gloomy extreme? Legendary value investor and philanthropist
Sir John Templeton made a career (and fortune) taking advantage of bargains that
showed up during recessionary periods and bear markets. His foremost investment
discipline was geared to wait patiently for stock prices to “reach the point of maximum
pessimism” and then he invested. It is somewhat
ironic that this pioneer of value investing, who
began his career in the 1930’s, would pass away
this month at the age of 95, just when the markets
have hit an emotional low point. We know Sir John
would be buying stocks during today’s financial
turmoil. Investor psychology has reached that
pessimistic extreme and conversely sets up the year
ahead to be a very profitable one. In the remainder of this newsletter, we expand on
four potent reasons to support our forward-looking optimism.
FOUR KEY REASONS TO BE OPTIMISTIC TODAY
1. Low Consumer Confidence = Profits Ahead
2. Bull Markets Always Follow Bear Markets
3. Lower Oil Prices Ahead
4. Record Cash Levels on Sidelines
“Bull markets are born on
pessimism, grow on
skepticism, mature on
optimism, and die on
euphoria.”
Sir John Templeton
1600 S.


Reason #1: Low Consumer Confidence = Profits Ahead
This may at first sound a bit counterintuitive, but the good news is American consumers’ level of
confidence has reached a 28-year low. How can that possibly be good news? In the 40-year
history of gauging consumer confidence, whenever attitudes tumble to this pessimistic extreme,
stocks have already greatly digested and discounted the bad news. As detailed in the chart and
table, we have identified six prior times when consumer confidence had fallen to this extreme
low level. Each time, despite all the bad news, a new bull market for stocks began and
significant stock market gains followed. We expect this seventh episode to end profitably as well.


Reason #2: Bull Markets Always Follow Bear Markets
To add perspective to current market conditions, we have compiled information summarizing
past bull and bear market cycles since 1960. Since then, there have been 11 bear markets with
each followed by new long term bull markets. Please take some time to study the table of information
on the accompanying page, particularly the “News Events of the Day” column. There are
two key points about bear markets we would like to highlight: First, investors are always faced
with intensely negative news and many times a “crisis atmosphere” which pushes stock prices
temporarily lower; second, bull markets begin in the middle of all the bad news. Historically
the bull markets rewarded investors with gains on average exceeding 90%.

Reason #3: Lower Oil Prices Ahead
$40
$3
$145
Major Positive Surprise – Lower Oil Prices Ahead!
$11
?
$145
$40
$11
$3
Crude Oil
A major factor influencing consumer pessimism is oil prices have doubled in the last year. At every
level of spending, consumers are feeling pain of higher energy costs, whether it is filling the car up
with gas or buying groceries. Any relief from spiraling energy costs would be a major step toward
improving investor psychology. Looking at our chart of the 120-year history of oil prices, clearly the
recent price gains are at unsustainable levels. The chart depicts oil prices and our long-term momentum
tool (6 year rate of change) showing only two other times in history oil prices have been this
stretched. Each time was followed by a significant price decline. While others are projecting $200
oil, our tools and research suggest an important turning point forecasting lower prices. We think
the most likely outcome will be a significant decline in oil to $100 or lower before the year is
over. This positive surprise for investors will be a major catalyst for the next bull market lift-off.

Reason #4: Record Cash Levels on Sidelines
Ratio of Cash to U. S. Stock Value
Money Market
Funds $3.36 Trillion
Total Value $12.39 Trillion
U. S. Stocks
or =
Cash to Market Value at 27%
is the Highest Level Ever !
Fuel for Bull Market Liftoff
Another positive sign is the enormous cash pile investors have sitting in money market funds.
This record amount of cash is fuel for the next bull market advance. In fact, cash levels in money
funds as a percent of the total value U.S. stocks equals a record high 27%! This level is higher
than the start of any bull market of the past 30 years. A little improvement in the news, an end
to the oil price spike, and a shift in investor attitudes toward optimism will open the floodgates
of money fund assets flowing back into stocks. A virtuous cycle can begin once again.

Conclusion
In this expanded newsletter we have laid out four key reasons to expect a strong stock market
going forward. Consistent with our January newsletter message, we expected 2008 would be a
transition year from bear market to new bull market. We have arrived at that important transition
point. History shows that just as day follows night, bull markets always follow bear markets. Itis time to be optimistic!